Komodo Dragons and Climate Change: The Last Safe Islands

This is not a story about dragons disappearing tomorrow. It is a story about where they may still be safe, and why the way we walk on those islands matters more than most visitors realise.

A lizard with nowhere else to go

The Komodo dragon lives in a very small corner of the world. It is found on five islands in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia: Komodo, Rinca, Nusa Kode and Gili Motang inside Komodo National Park, and a few fragments along the north and west coasts of Flores.

The authors of the main climate study put the park population at fewer than 3,000 animals, in around 600 square kilometres. More recent park monitoring, reported by IUCN, counted between 3,156 and 3,396 animals across four annual surveys, and describes the population as stable.

Stable is good news. But there is a catch, and it is about how little dragons move.

What the climate models see

The first detailed climate projection for Komodo dragons joined two kinds of models. One described where dragon habitat could exist. The other described how dragon populations grow and shrink, built from long-term monitoring. Together they ran more than one million simulations, changing the climate model, the emissions pathway and the dragons’ own survival and movement each time.

Across all that uncertainty, the projections for mid-century were wide: a loss of 8% to 87% of habitat across the whole range, a fall of 25% to 97% in how many habitat patches are occupied, and declines of 27% to 99% in the number of dragons.

The range is wide on purpose. Low emissions give fairly small declines. The most severe assumptions give loss across almost the whole range. Under median climate assumptions, the authors estimate losses of 57% to 92% of occupied range and 71% to 94% of abundance. So no single number here is a forecast. The message is that the future depends on choices.

Heat, forest and steep hills

Why would warming hurt a reptile that loves the sun? It is about the kind of home the dragons need.

They favour moderately warm, open deciduous forest, which grows in a narrow band within a few kilometres of the coast. As the lowlands warm, that forest is expected to give way to drier savannah. The cooler uplands that might replace it are steep and rugged, not an easy new home.

When the species was moved from Vulnerable to Endangered on the IUCN Red List, climate change and rising seas were named among the main reasons.

Why Komodo and Rinca stand out

For me, the most useful result is not the big range of numbers. It is the difference between islands.

The risk of losing dragons completely was lower on Komodo and Rinca, the two largest protected islands, than on any other island population. The small islands of Nusa Kode and Gili Motang have fewer mid-elevation refuges. And the model predicts that dragons on Flores would be lost under all six climate scenarios without further conservation action.

So the authors call Komodo and Rinca “important safe havens”, and they ask that these habitats are managed to reflect that status. Their list of things to limit is direct: any process that could make future habitat loss or degradation worse, “such as the expansion of ecotourism”. They also suggest that moving dragons from the most vulnerable populations may one day be needed.

Where we, the visitors, fit in

The researchers note that the dragon is economically important to Indonesia through tourism. But tourism also brings jetties, trails, boats and buildings to the very islands the models single out.

IUCN’s World Heritage assessment rates the overall outlook for Komodo National Park as “significant concern”. It names tourism and visitation management as a key concern, and cites projections that visitor numbers could rise sharply without restrictions.

Indonesia’s Forestry Ministry has since announced a cap of 1,000 visitors a day across Komodo, Rinca and Padar islands and 23 surrounding dive sites, after consultation with operators in Labuan Bajo. Quotas can change over time. But the direction matches what the climate research asks for: fewer, better-managed footsteps on the dragons’ last strongholds.

How to walk there well

The park’s own visitor protocol keeps it simple. Follow the instructions of park staff and naturalist guides, stay on marked trekking routes and respect timed entry. Never feed wildlife, never touch animals and never get too close to them, on land or in the water. The guide decides the distance. Dragons are large wild predators, so this is about your safety as much as theirs. Wildlife encounters are unpredictable. Walking among Komodo dragons should always follow local regulations and experienced professional guidance.

Good operators keep groups small, so a walk never becomes a crowd around one resting animal. They never stage photographs or step off the path for a better angle. And they treat the dry forest itself as worth seeing, because the habitat is exactly what needs protecting.

At sea, the same protocol forbids anchoring in manta habitat and in water shallower than 30 metres, except on sand, and only certified divers may dive. Choosing a boat that uses moorings is a simple way to support the park. Between islands, I keep my phone and a dry layer in a small roll-top dry bag, so my hands are free to hold on and listen to the briefing.

Komodo is not part of any Ocean Calling trip today. If this side of Indonesia calls you, Gili Trawangan is one of the places where our Ocean Match can connect you with a vetted local team, and you book with them directly. Wherever you go, travel slowly, and keep these safe havens in mind.

Questions people ask

Wildlife encounters are never guaranteed and never forced. Ocean Calling works only with vetted, ethical local operators, and every animal is free to approach, or not, entirely on its own terms.